aWpTiMuS

Electronic gaming devices typically have a “payout” setting. This is a setting that prevents a machine from paying out until a certain number of plays has been reached. My hand-eye co-ordination is pretty good; I grew up in the era of video games. I have played the Stacker game a few times, and can win after a modest number of tries. However, I once played on in a mall and spent a rather large amount of money ($25) attempting to win an X-Box 360. I believe the system had the payout setting on (it’s supposed to be a game of skill, therefore not gambling), because I know there were a few times I hit it perfectly the square just magically moved over for me to lose. Based on this, I honestly believe that’s what happend.

According to the merchandise manual, a major prize is worth about 100 times the cost per play at the game’s highest difficulty level, the estimated ratio of wins to losses will be near 1 to 800. However, the actual ratio may be lower or higher based somewhat on the skill of the players, with the approximate frequency of winning the major prize being set at the discretion of the game’s operator [emphasis mine]. 

OK, so the set up probably violated Pennsylvania Gaming Laws, but I just stopped playing after I assumed it was rigged.

But I was thinking tonight: if it’s a game of chance and not skill, would it be misleading to have a statement of probability based on the payout setting?

Lets say that a slot game has one single jackpot. Lets say the probability of winning on any one turn was 1/100. What if there were a payout setting that would make the jack pot every 100 plays. If the person playing did not know where in the 100 plays they were starting, nor did they know that it was consistent, winning for that individual would appear random. To each short-term player (under 200 plays) winning seem random.

I would say that this would be OK if each player were limited to one play on any given machine, but not ok if players were allowed to sit and play for hours. If I play once, I do not know where in the 100 plays it is. So to me there is a 1/100 chance. But, if I play again right after, there is a zero chance of my winning. If there is no chance, then there it is no game of chance!

Without the payout, there is a 1/10000 chance of me winning twice in succession, which is small, but infinite magnitudes greater than zero.

Yea, that’s what came into my mind tonight.